8
Astley
6yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 110
Gowran Park · Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | BHA94 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Navan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 02/05/2025 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 26/12/2025 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 79% | +0.23 |