1
Its Bilbo
5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 129
Gowran Park · Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA135 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | 2 | 23th | 23th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Limerick | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Navan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-21 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/12/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 13/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 91% | -0.05 |
| 21/04/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 17/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 29/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/03/2026 | 23rd | 22/1 | 0% | 4% | +0.04 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |