9
Luimneach
9yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 105
Gowran Park · Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA103 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA98 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kilbeggan | BHA99 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | BHA100 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-20 | Down Royal | BHA97 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA98 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2024 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 27/03/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.19 |
| 09/06/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 20/11/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 20/01/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |