7
One Last Tango
9yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 111
Gowran Park · Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Listowel | BHA113 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA115 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Leopardstown | BHA116 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | BHA117 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-08 | Tipperary | BHA116 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/12/2024 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 26/12/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 21/01/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 08/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 02/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/09/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |