5
Esperanzito
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 87
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |