2
Fredericksburg
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 76
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |