4
Tall Story
4yo Colt · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 29/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |