6
Tapstick
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 75
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 57% | -0.33 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |