Goal
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 27/04/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 09/07/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/09/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 13% | -0.77 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |