Turkish Flame
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 74
Gulfstream · Race 10 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-08-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |