Inherent Promise
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 7 · OR 84
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-05-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 23/03/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 19/04/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 31/05/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 10/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 05/07/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |