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5

Only The Lonely

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 57

Gulfstream · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS25/10C6C6 @ Gulfstream 22/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 87 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 87 par22/11C6OR 87C6 @ Gulfstream 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 70 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 70 par22/08C6OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Gulfstream?7th4th+3
2025-11-22Gulfstream?6th3rd+3
2025-10-25Gulfstream?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1022/1122/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -45.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20252nd9/153%86%+0.33
22/11/20256th7/491%29%-0.62
22/08/20267th8/158%0%-0.58