1

Con Compania

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 97

Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

62%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼3
Strength84%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 13/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 102 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 102 par13/06C6OR 102C6 @ Gulfstream 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 103 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 103 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 105 · 7f Slo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/09/2025 · OR 105 par10/09C6OR 105C0 @ Gulfstream 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m Fas 121C1 @ Gulfstream 20/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 107 · 1m110y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 107 par20/12C1OR 107C5 @ Gulfstream 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 105 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Gulfstream 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 98 par5/04C6OR 98C6 @ Gulfstream 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 96 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Gulfstream 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 94 · 6f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 94 par23/05C6OR 94projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-23Gulfstream?1st-1th+2
2026-04-24Gulfstream?5th3rd+2
2026-04-05Gulfstream?2nd0th+2
2026-02-21Gulfstream?4th0th+3
2025-12-20Gulfstream?6th-2th+7
2025-10-18Gulfstream?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0618/105/0423/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20253rd10/382%67%-0.16
02/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
10/09/20253rd5/287%67%-0.20
18/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
20/12/20256th13/266%17%-0.49
21/02/20264th7/163%57%-0.06
05/04/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
24/04/20265th2/189%20%-0.69
23/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12