Kalik
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 94
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 15/11/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |