IvyArcIvyArc
6

O Captain

7yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 92

Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 26/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 102 par26/04C6OR 102C6 @ Gulfstream 24/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 104 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2025 · OR 104 parC8 @ Gulfstream 16/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 105 · 7f110y 121 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 105 par16/01C8OR 105C8 @ Gulfstream 15/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 94 parC8 @ Gulfstream 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 95 · 1m 121 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 95 par30/05C8OR 95C8 @ Gulfstream 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 88 · 1m 126 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Gulfstream 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 93 par20/07C8OR 93C7 @ Gulfstream 17/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Gulfstream 06/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 89 · 6f110y Slo 123 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 89 par6/09C8OR 89projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Gulfstream?2nd2nd0
2026-08-17Gulfstream?7th6th+1
2026-07-20Gulfstream?6th6th0
2026-06-12Gulfstream?2nd2nd0
2026-05-30Gulfstream?2nd2nd0
2026-02-15Gulfstream?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0415/0220/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength79%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20259th8/158%11%-0.47
24/05/20259th16/116%11%-0.05
16/01/20269th8/158%0%-0.58
15/02/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
30/05/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
12/06/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14
20/07/20266th10/147%29%-0.19
17/08/20267th25/10%0%0.00
06/09/20262nd4/179%75%-0.04