P Four
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 7 · OR 98
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-11-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 09/02/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 30/03/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 19/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 31/01/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |