11
Bonita Breeze
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 85
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |