7
Brutally Honest
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 88
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-11-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 44/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 28/11/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/06/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 22/06/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |