1
Elenique
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 89
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 9-12 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 88% | -0.07 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |