2
Lindsay Smiles
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 88
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 06/03/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 05/04/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |