Mia Familia
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 106
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |