Olivia Valentina
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 90
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/05/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |