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6yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 10 · OR 87

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

48%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-13	Gulfstream	?	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-08-31	Gulfstream	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-08-08	Gulfstream	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-20	Gulfstream	?	9th	7th	+2	3.4
2026-06-14	Gulfstream	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-23	Gulfstream	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 50/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength51%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/03/2026	6th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
10/04/2026	4th	7/1	63%	25%	-0.38
30/04/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	80%	-0.02
23/05/2026	4th	12/1	37%	40%	+0.03
14/06/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	60%	-0.16
20/07/2026	9th	8/1	58%	0%	-0.58
08/08/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	75%	-0.01
31/08/2026	1st	8/13	97%	100%	+0.03
13/09/2026	6th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71