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5

Degree Of Risk

7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 105

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength77%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Laurel Park 19/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 104 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/04/2025 · OR 104 par19/04C5OR 104C5 @ Gulfstream 17/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 105 parC6 @ Ellis Park 13/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 105 · 1m110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/07/2025 · OR 105 par13/07C6OR 105C6 @ Kentucky Downs 31/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 104 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2025 · OR 104 parC5 @ Keeneland 18/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 107 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 107 par18/10C5OR 107C6 @ Gulfstream 27/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 109 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 109 parC6 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 110 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 110 par28/02C6OR 110C6 @ Gulfstream 24/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 109 parC7 @ Gulfstream 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 110 · 1m110y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 110 par31/08C7OR 110projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Gulfstream?6th5th+1
2026-04-24Gulfstream?6th4th+2
2026-02-28Gulfstream?6th4th+2
2025-12-27Gulfstream?7th5th+2
2025-10-18Keeneland?3rd0th+3
2025-08-31Kentucky Downs?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0431/0828/0231/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20258th15/261%22%-0.38
17/05/20254th13/266%50%-0.16
13/07/20253rd5/174%50%-0.24
31/08/20252nd8/158%91%+0.33
18/10/20253rd8/158%78%+0.20
27/12/20257th4/179%25%-0.54
28/02/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
24/04/20266th25/10%50%+0.50
31/08/20266th11/271%0%-0.71