Eton
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 83
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2025 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 03/08/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |