Walter Me Lad

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 92

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength46%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Colonial Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-08-14	Colonial Downs	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-07-19	Colonial Downs	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-06-26	Colonial Downs	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-05-16	Gulfstream	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-04-16	Gulfstream	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength93%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
27/12/2025	2nd	5/2	87%	89%	+0.02
16/01/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	75%	+0.22
15/03/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	75%	+0.14
16/04/2026	2nd	15/8	90%	83%	-0.07
16/05/2026	4th	11/2	71%	40%	-0.31
26/06/2026	4th	16/1	16%	63%	+0.47
19/07/2026	5th	20/1	0%	56%	+0.56
14/08/2026	4th	8/1	58%	63%	+0.05
03/09/2026	4th	9/2	76%	50%	-0.26