4
Dream Machine
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 68
Keeneland · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +68.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |