7
Lake Forest
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 118
Keeneland · Race 10 - Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 1 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | York | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 29% | -0.63 |
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 76% | +0.08 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 45% | -0.10 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |