4
Mercante
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 113
Keeneland · Race 10 - Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA114 | 6th | 19th | −11 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |