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5

Pass The Hat

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 109

Keeneland · Race 10 - Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲5
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: -4.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saratoga 31/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 81 · 1m 123 · below its mark31/08/2025 · OR 81 par31/08C5OR 81C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 82 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 93 · 7f 120 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 93 par15/11C5OR 93C6 @ Gulfstream 03/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 121 · beat its mark03/01/2026 · OR 86 parC6 @ Gulfstream 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 91 · 7f110y Fm 123 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 91 par28/03C6OR 91C6 @ Aqueduct 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 97 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 97 parC1 @ Saratoga 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 106 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 106 par7/06C1OR 106C1 @ Saratoga 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 104 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 104 parBHA107 @ Saratoga 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 107 · 1m110y Gd 126 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 107 par3/09107OR 107projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03SaratogaBHA1072nd15th−11
2026-07-05Saratoga?3rd4th−0
2026-06-07Saratoga?1st2nd−0
2026-04-18Aqueduct?1st7th−5
2026-03-28Gulfstream?4th10th−5
2026-01-03Gulfstream?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/083/017/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength90%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20259th6/168%11%-0.57
04/10/20253rd14/126%80%+0.54
15/11/20257th11/271%0%-0.71
03/01/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
28/03/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
18/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
07/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
05/07/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
03/09/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00