1
Title Role
3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 116
Keeneland · Race 10 - Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 1 | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-30 | Meydan | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Meydan | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 94% | +0.13 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 85% | +0.16 |
| 30/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |