16
Won'tcatchmecryan
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 16 · OR 71
Keeneland · Race 11 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#15
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +80.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |