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5

Episist

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 89

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength15%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fair Grounds 19/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m110y Fas 12019/03C6C6 @ Oaklawn Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 41 · 1m 122 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 41 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 53 · 1m110y Slo 124 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 53 par4/04C6OR 53C6 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m110y Fas 125 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 65 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m1f 125 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 75 par29/05C6OR 75C6 @ Churchill Downs 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 76 · 1m110y Slo 125 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 76 parC6 @ Ellis Park 09/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 78 par9/08C6OR 78C6 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 81 · 1m4f 124 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 81 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 1m2f110y 124 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 85 par7/09C6OR 85projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Kentucky Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-08-30Kentucky Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-08-09Ellis Park?6th7th−1
2026-06-26Churchill Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-05-29Churchill Downs?4th5th−1
2026-05-01Churchill Downs?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/031/059/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/03/20257th16/116%14%-0.02
19/12/20254th33/10%57%+0.57
04/04/20262nd8/158%80%+0.22
01/05/20264th7/163%50%-0.13
29/05/20264th25/10%63%+0.63
26/06/20263rd40/10%71%+0.71
09/08/20266th16/116%55%+0.39
30/08/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
07/09/20261st6/492%100%+0.08