1
Marcinkowski
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 89
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/06/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 03/07/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 10/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |