3
Market Chill
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 3 · OR 94
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 53/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |