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6

Miss Pharaoh

4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 96

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

71%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 07/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 89 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark07/06/2025 · OR 89 par7/06C6OR 89C6 @ Churchill Downs 29/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 95 parC6 @ Keeneland 09/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 93 · 1m1f Gd 120 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 93 par9/10C6OR 93C6 @ Churchill Downs 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m110y Slo 121 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 93 parC6 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 89 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 89 par21/12C6OR 89C6 @ Keeneland 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 82 · 1m1f Fm 126 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 82 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m Gd 126 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 85 par23/05C5OR 85C5 @ Churchill Downs 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 85 · 1m1f Fm 126 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 85 parC5 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 93 · 1m 122 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 93 par6/09C5OR 93projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Kentucky Downs?5th5th0
2026-06-19Churchill Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-05-23Churchill Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-04-23Keeneland?1st2nd−1
2025-12-21Turfway Park?3rd4th−1
2025-11-21Churchill Downs?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0621/1123/056/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20252nd10/147%91%+0.44
29/06/20254th13/266%73%+0.07
09/10/20253rd14/126%82%+0.56
21/11/20252nd6/168%83%+0.15
21/12/20253rd9/276%82%+0.06
23/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
23/05/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
19/06/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
06/09/20265th15/261%56%-0.05