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4

Paseo

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 97

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Kentucky Downs 28/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f110y 11928/08C6C6 @ Keeneland 23/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 87 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 14/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 89 par14/11C6OR 89C6 @ Gulfstream 23/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 86 parC6 @ Gulfstream 01/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m1f Fm 122 · beat its mark01/03/2026 · OR 84 par1/03C6OR 84C6 @ Churchill Downs 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 89 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 89 parC6 @ Ellis Park 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 92 · 1m 118 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 92 par6/07C6OR 92C6 @ Ellis Park 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 94 parC5 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 94 · 1m 120 · below its mark06/09/2026 · OR 94 par6/09C5OR 94projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Kentucky Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-08-09Ellis Park?1st2nd−1
2026-07-06Ellis Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-07Churchill Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-01Gulfstream?2nd3rd−1
2026-01-23Gulfstream?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0823/016/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 67/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength41%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20257th20/10%45%+0.45
23/10/20254th5/174%73%-0.01
14/11/20258th8/158%36%-0.22
23/01/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
01/03/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
07/06/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
06/07/20262nd6/492%89%-0.03
09/08/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
06/09/20263rd5/287%78%-0.09