IvyArcIvyArc
10

Siouxse

3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 10 · OR 99

Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 28/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11928/08C6C6 @ Laurel Park 12/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 84 par12/10C6OR 84C6 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 119 · beat its mark15/11/2025 · OR 89 par15/11C6OR 89C5 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 91 par15/05C5OR 91C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 90 par11/06C6OR 90C5 @ Colonial Downs 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 93 · 1m2f Yie 118 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 93 par2/08C5OR 93BHA94 @ Colonial Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 94 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 94 par7/0994OR 94projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Colonial DownsBHA943rd8th−4
2026-08-02Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-06-11Belmont At The Big A?4th5th−1
2026-05-15Laurel Park?4th3rd+1
2025-11-15Aqueduct?1st2nd−1
2025-10-12Laurel Park?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0815/057/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 65/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength84%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20254th20/10%67%+0.67
12/10/20252nd11/486%89%+0.03
15/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
15/05/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
11/06/20264th10/147%63%+0.15
02/08/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
07/09/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45