11
Tulip
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 11 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 1f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 57/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength78%
Delivery trend -27.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |