3
C K Wonder
4yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 98
Keeneland · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 09/03/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 24/04/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 25/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/04/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |