Durante
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 11th | 5th | +5 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/09/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |