Floodlites
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 107
Keeneland · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 01/11/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 19/12/2024 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 90% | -0.07 |
| 13/07/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 70% | -0.21 |
| 30/08/2025 | 12th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |