6
Copper Missile
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keeneland | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/02/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 29/03/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/05/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |