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3

First Resort

4yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 99

Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength91%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 05/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Slo 1195/07C6C0 @ Saratoga 10/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2024 · OR 91 par10/08C?OR 91C0 @ Woodbine 14/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 92 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2024 · OR 92 par14/09C?OR 92C0 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/11/2024 · OR 98 par30/11C?OR 98C6 @ Ellis Park 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 101 par17/07C6OR 101C6 @ Ellis Park 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 104 · 1m1f Fas 122 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 104 par8/08C6OR 104projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Ellis Park?6th6th0
2026-07-17Ellis Park?3rd3rd0
2024-11-30Churchill Downs?1st-5th+5
2024-09-14Woodbine?4th-2th+5
2024-08-10Saratoga?2nd-4th+5
2024-07-05Ellis Park?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0710/0814/0930/1117/078/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -16.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20241st3/184%100%+0.16
10/08/20242nd13/266%86%+0.20
14/09/20244th9/153%67%+0.14
30/11/20241st11/271%100%+0.29
17/07/20263rd5/493%71%-0.22
08/08/20266th6/492%17%-0.75