Render Judgment
4yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 102
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 17th | 11th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/03/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 08/04/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/05/2025 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 03/01/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 18% | -0.64 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |