Stowaway
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 110
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | BHA106 | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |