1

Urban Planner

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 92

Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turfway Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m2f Fas 124 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 85 par21/02C6OR 85C6 @ Turfway Park 20/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fas 118 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 93 par7/05C8OR 93C8 @ Churchill Downs 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fas 118 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 92 parC7 @ Churchill Downs 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 1m110y 118 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 93 par25/06C7OR 93C6 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m Gd 124 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Ellis Park 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fas 124 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 90 par8/08C6OR 90C6 @ Saratoga 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 92 · 1m 123 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 92 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 91 par17/09C6OR 91projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2026-09-05Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-08-08Ellis Park?1st1st0
2026-07-19Ellis Park?8th8th0
2026-06-25Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-10Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0210/068/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength73%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/02/20266th25/10%55%+0.55
20/03/202611th14/126%9%-0.17
07/05/20265th15/261%43%-0.18
10/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
25/06/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
19/07/20268th8/158%0%-0.58
08/08/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
05/09/20263rd20/10%71%+0.71
17/09/20265th14/126%43%+0.17