9
Its Bourbon Thirty
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 9 · OR 104
Keeneland · Race 6 - Woodford S. Presented By Fanduel - Grade 2 · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 15th | −5 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 30/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |