6
Joe Shiesty
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 117
Keeneland · Race 6 - Woodford S. Presented By Fanduel - Grade 2 · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.60 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |