1

Script

7yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 109

Keeneland · Race 6 - Woodford S. Presented By Fanduel - Grade 2 · 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲4
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 04/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 106 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark04/06/2025 · OR 106 par4/06C6OR 106C6 @ Churchill Downs 27/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 107 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 107 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 04/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 104 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 104 par4/09C6OR 104C0 @ Keeneland 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 110 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 110 parC5 @ Keeneland 18/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 111 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 111 par18/10C5OR 111C5 @ Turfway Park 22/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 114 · 6f 120 · below its mark22/12/2025 · OR 114 parC5 @ Turfway Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 113 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 113 par14/02C5OR 113C6 @ Churchill Downs 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 112 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 112 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 110 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 110 par30/08C6OR 110projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Kentucky Downs?4th10th−5
2026-06-14Churchill Downs?6th12th−5
2026-02-14Turfway Park?6th11th−4
2025-12-22Turfway Park?3rd8th−4
2025-10-18Keeneland?2nd8th−5
2025-10-04Keeneland?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/064/1014/0230/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20253rd13/266%75%+0.09
27/06/20253rd8/158%80%+0.22
04/09/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
04/10/20252nd25/10%86%+0.86
18/10/20252nd9/488%86%-0.02
22/12/20253rd12/137%71%+0.35
14/02/20266th9/153%29%-0.24
14/06/20266th10/147%38%-0.10
30/08/20264th13/266%70%+0.04